Not true, says Microsoft and developers Mark Rein and Chris Taylor.

“The PC games market is becoming a niche, substantial in size, but a niche nonetheless & Ultimately, I think that the PC games market stays about the same size, while console/handheld game sales grow by around 50%.” – Michael Pachter, Analyst for Wedbush Morgan Securities in a Gamasutra article titled Analyze This: The Current State of the PC Game Business

There’s no denying the PC market has slowly been losing its grip on the mainstream gamer as consoles have increased their market penetration, not to mention the slew of studios who’ve switched from PC-only to become multi-platform developers — we’re looking at you, Epic Games. The changes make sense, the platform is undeniably in a state of transition, but has it truly become niche, the same word we use to describe hardware platforms like the failed WonderSwan?

Analysts themselves are predicting numbers for the PC gaming industry that fly in the face of Pachter’s statements. In an Associated Press article from April 6th, 2006, IDC analyst May Wong predicted US sales of PC game downloads “will almost double this year to about $500-million and grow to $763-million in 2007.” Analyst Anita Frazier of the NPD Group also cites some impressive figures during a Gamefest 2006 presentation last month. “$1.4 billion of game sales are for online games, most for digital downloads of games,” she said.

Pacther, however, suggests the market will remain mostly stagnant.

On the other hand, developers, and even Microsoft themselves, recognize the industry’s state of flux means a need to step up to change. “The percentage of PCs sold that are completely inadequate to play those cross-platforms games is rising rapidly due to the massive success of Intel’s strategy to sell complete platforms to system manufacturers,” says Mark Rein, VP of Epic Games, and currently one of the many developers working on both next-generation consoles and PCs. “The bottom line is that the majority of consumers unknowingly buy computers that suck for playing decent games.”

As PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 establish themselves, Rein fears more companies will leave for consoles, but suggests hope if hardware manufacturers start building affordable, graphics-capable PCs that provide the added functionality of a PC with the technology needed to play the latest games as easily as console gamers do. Rein doesn’t find much hope with Intel, but believes the recent ATI and AMD merger could produce quality PC hardware. “Maybe this will finally wake up Intel. I can dream, can’t I?” he concludes.

If the hardware folk can’t be relied upon, though, there are Microsoft’s pushes to steamline PC gaming at the retail level and make the experience user-friendly through the upcoming Vista operating system. “…what I’ve seen [of Vista], it’s fun, it’s kind of got a refreshing angle to it. But aside from the glitz and the glamor, I think what’s really cool is the prioritization on making the PC experience of going out and buying a game, putting it into the CD tray, closing the CD tray and having it load is going in the right direction,” says Supreme Commander designer and PC gaming fan-favorite Chris Taylor.

What Taylor suggests is the difference between the average console and PC user. With a console, pop in the disc and start playing — there’s none of the added stress that comes with getting a PC game up and running. Taylor’s hoping to solve some of this with Supreme Commander, which can actually stream directly off the DVD. “Believe it or not. All the no-load stuff, all the streaming predictive caching stuff — it loads right off the DVD drive,” he says. “I think the developer has a lot of responsibility.”

Microsoft wholeheartedly agrees, though Rich Wickham, Microsoft’s Director of the Games for Windows division, doesn’t approach the issue as frankly as Taylor and Rein do, painting the picture of PC gaming a bit rosy. “The Windows gaming industry is incredibly healthy, vibrant and far-reaching,” he says. “With a wide range of games appealing to everyone from the most core to the casual gamer, the Windows platform has more titles and players than any gaming platform.”

Wickman’s last statement might be factually correct, but considering how many developers are expressing concern over the need to work together on the future of PC gaming to ensure consoles don’t grab everything but the MMO and RTS markets, we’re anxious to see how the situation develops as Xbox 360 moves into its second year on the market and Sony finally delivers PlayStation 3 to the masses.

After that, it’s on.
Source: gametab.com